From poll toppers to poll droppers?

Adrian Kavanagh 24th February 2011

One interesting fact to look at could be the fate of the candidates who topped the polls (i.e. won most votes, not necessarily first elected!) in the 43 different constituencies in 2007 – from what I see a number have retired but some of the rest could be at risk of losing their seats in this election. In 2007 Fianna Fail candidates topped the poll in 36 constituencies, Fine Gael candidates in five, while a Labour and Independent candidate topped the poll in one constituency. The poll toppers in 2007 were:

Carlow-Kilkenny	McGuinness, John FF	11,635
Cavan-Monaghan	Smith, Brendan FF	15,548
Clare	Dooley, Timmy FF	10,791
Cork East	Ahern, Michael FF	10,350
Cork North Central	Kelleher, Billy FF	9,456
Cork North West	Moynihan, Michael FF	10,146
Cork South Central	Martin, Michael FF	11,226
Cork South West	O’Sullivan, Christy FF	10,333
Donegal North East	McHugh, Joe FG	8,711
Donegal South West	Coughlan, Mary FF	10,530
Dublin Central	Ahern, Bertie FF	12,734
Dublin Mid West	Curran, John FF	8,650
Dublin North	Kennedy, Michael FF	10,880
Dublin North Central	Bruton, Richard FG	9,303
Dublin North East	Woods, Michael FF	7,003
Dublin North West	Ahern, Noel FF	7,913
Dublin South	Brennan, Seamus FF	13,373
Dublin South Central	Ardagh, Sean FF	8,286
Dublin South East	Andrews, Chris FF	6,600
Dublin South West	Lenihan, Conor FF	8,542
Dublin West	Lenihan, Brian FF	11,125
Dun Laoghaire	Hanafin, Mary FF	11,884
Galway East	Kitt, Michael FF	8,796
Galway West	O’Cuiv, Eamonn FF	9,645
Kerry North	Deenihan, Jimmy FG	12,697
Kerry South	O’Donoghue, John FF	9,128
Kildare North	Brady, Aine FF	11,245
Kildare South	O’Feaghaill, Sean FF	8,731
Laois-Offaly	Cowen, Brian FF	19,102
Limerick East	O’Dea, Willie FF	19,082
Limerick West	Collins, Niall FF	10,396
Longford-Westmeath	Penrose, Willie LB	9,692
Louth	Kirk, Seamus FF	10,190
Mayo	Kenny, Enda FG	14,717
Meath East	Wallace, Mary FF	10,901
Meath West	Dempsey, Noel FF	12,006
Roscommon-South Leitrim	Finneran, Michael FF	9,982
Sligo-North Leitrim	Scanlon, Eamonn FF	9,258
Tipperary North	Lowry, Michael IND	12,919
Tipperary South	Hayes, Tom FG	8,200
Waterford	Cullen, Martin FF	11,438
Wexford	Browne, John FF	12,768
Wicklow	Roche, Dick FF	10,246

In addition to the late Seamus Brennan, a number of the 2007 (all Fianna Fail!) poll toppers will not be contesting the 2011 election; Bertie Ahern, Michael Woods, Noel Ahern, Sean Ardagh, Brian Cowen, Mary Wallace, Noel Dempsey, Michael Finneran and Martin Cullen, while Seamus Kirk will not need to contest Louth due to his position as Ceann Comhairle. So 25 Fianna Fail poll-toppers from 2007 will be contesting this election, in addition to the five Fine Gael, one Labour and one Independent poll toppers.

It will be interesting to look at the fate of these 2007 poll toppers and see how many, if any, end up following on their poll-topping performance with a loss in the 2011 General Election.